Author: Joe Yerdon

The Buffalo Sabres have two games left in the season and there’s still a doubt as to whether or not they’ll finish with the league’s worst record.

Consider that they have 54 points, a whole two points better than they did last season when they were 13 points behind the next worst team, and it lays out just how bad things are at the bottom. The fact the Sabres are technically better than they were last season is startling on its own and the fact whether or not they’ll secure their shot to grab Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel waits for at least the result of their game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Friday.

What’s incredible about this season for Buffalo is how the Sabres have had and may continue to have their hands in everything. Think of what may lay ahead for Saturday, the final day of the season.

A Sabres win against the Blue Jackets puts them even in points with Arizona for last. The Sabres have the tiebreaker, of course, but it would set the table for a highly uncomfortable final game at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Sabres would need a regulation loss to ensure 30th and while doing that against Pittsburgh hasn’t been hard to do in recent years, the Penguins are reeling.

The Penguins are 3-5-2 in their past 10 games and may need to win that game Saturday should they lose to the New York Islanders on Friday. A Penguins regulation loss would put them in peril of missing the playoffs. On the upside, they have one more point than the equally flailing Boston Bruins, but with everyone in action on Saturday leaving things to chance means potential playoff mayhem with the Bruins, Penguins, and Ottawa Senators all looking to secure the wild card spots.

Think of the drama that could unfold in Buffalo on Saturday… Buffalo fans desperate for their team to lose to secure their spot in the standings coupled with the Penguins desperately needing a win to make the playoffs. How do the fans react to that?

Sure there will be a lot of Penguins fans there because Pittsburgh isn’t too far from Buffalo, but the surreal atmosphere that could come about would be even stranger than what happened against the Coyotes weeks ago. The desire by the Sabres fan base to land either McDavid or Eichel is at a fever pitch and if the Sabres pull out a win against Columbus it’ll be a virtual panic situation.

Think of the absurdity of that. Of all of it. To root for a team that has done nothing but lose in unfathomable fashion the past two seasons only to have them not lose enough for the pay off. It’s enough to make you want to have the Sabres lose to Columbus just to make sure it doesn’t happen.

But the drama… The drama is too rich to ignore. Just thinking of how that game could play out with so much on the line for both teams is incredible. It’d be a fitting send off to what’s been a ridiculous season in regards to racing to the bottom one way or another.

Maybe the Blue Jackets and Penguins take care of things tonight and make that final game just another throwaway game on the final day of the season. Then again, maybe they don’t and we’re all treated to one final fascinating spectacle in what’s been a season straight out of Bizarro World.

I got inspired today.

I read this piece by Igor Larionov at The Players Tribune and it made me feel a lot of things.

It made me feel like I care too much at times about hockey and the state of the game. It made me feel like spouting off a bit on Twitter. Which I did.

To sum up Larionov, he lamented how creativity in hockey was being virtually eliminated in favor of playing the perfect North American system. Part of his critique was how the majority of coaches these days are guys who were grinders when they played and that’s the sort of hockey they’re making the next generation learn how to play.

Not coincidentally, the NHL is having one of the lowest-scoring seasons in a long, long time. With the great play of some individuals (Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos) and the brilliant play of some teams over the past few seasons, this alarming statistic has gone almost ignored. Someone on Twitter graphed out how dire things have been.

Everyone knows that scoring isn’t very high: pic.twitter.com/ZkwnQZRQsu

— m g (@kikkerlaika) February 23, 2015

Same for powerplay goals: pic.twitter.com/HAnvKEQMG0

— m g (@kikkerlaika) February 23, 2015

Powerplay opportunities are actually the lowest they’ve been in 50+ years of data: pic.twitter.com/Y3F6sTXJNj

— m g (@kikkerlaika) February 23, 2015

if you combine all three (avg goals + PP goals + PP opp), 14-15 is the lowest among all seasons that have data: pic.twitter.com/awpQroyg7e

— m g (@kikkerlaika) February 23, 2015

If there’s something that seems to chap fans asses, it’s complaints about penalties. Take a look at Twitter or Facebook on any night and you’ll see fans of all kinds up in arms about it. It’s not for nothing now though, calls aren’t being made and teams aren’t getting the opportunity to make their opponents pay for their misdeeds.

Larionov’s observations are tied to this decline in calls being made. After all, the North American game is about being tough and playing the blue collar way and that means doing whatever is necessary to make sure the elite players don’t beat you.

It seems the mantra every year from everyone is that they want the players to settle it on the ice without the help of officials. Well that’s great in theory, except that players will do whatever it takes to get an edge. Hook, hold, interfere, obstruct. All of it. Before, it was only the playoffs where calls would stop getting made. Now it’s happening all season long and the NHL is as successful as it’s ever been.

Anyone else having a bad case of déjà vu?

We’ve seen this happen before in the mid-90s, only this time there’s not the Neutral Zone Trap bogeyman to point at and curse. Instead, it’s the same problem that allowed “The Trap Era” to take root. Calls aren’t being made and the inmates (the players) are running the asylum while the wardens (officials) let them hash it out. Meanwhile, offense has dried up and goals are at a premium.

Only Ovechkin and Rick Nash have a true shot at scoring 50 goals this season. Ovechkin has 38 and Nash has 37. Stamkos is third with 32. Patrick Kane and Nicklas Backstrom lead the league with 64 points. Can they get 36 points in the final 22 and 21 games respectively to break 100? They could, they’re universal talents, but they’re not going to.

The last season in which the NHL points leader had fewer than 100 was, not coincidentally, 2003-2004 before the season-killing lockout when Martin St. Louis had 94 for Tampa Bay. Do Kane or Backstrom even get to 94 this season? Maybe, but the prospects look grim.

Even going back to last season, Sidney Crosby was above and beyond the league’s best player and still had just 104 points. He was 17 points better than Ryan Getzlaf. Ovechkin scored 51 goals and only two other players broke 40 (Corey Perry and Joe Pavelski).

This is a big problem.

The NHL has perhaps the greatest level of talent the league has ever seen and these guys can’t score goals like they did after the lockout in 2005-2006. Don’t you want your elite players looking the part? Don’t you want to be dazzled by Kane, Ovechkin, Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Pavel Datsyuk, and the growing list of other brilliantly talented players? Of course you do. So why aren’t they allowed to flourish?

Make the calls. Open the game back up. Let the players be elite instead of dragging them down to be like everyone else.

When I got back into writing, blogging was the way to do it. I did a bit of beat work at my college newspaper and also wrote an occasional column about… Anything really.

After college it was about finding whatever job you could lock down so you could get your career underway. For me, that was radio. The writing stopped and my chops as a producer were more necessary, but the itch to write came back as my frustration in radio grew. An outlet was needed and off to Blogspot I went to write and, well, you can see plenty of that stuff here with other more tersely worded things I spit out while trying to figure out what to do with my life.

But the blogging you know all about. That helped fire up a dormant sensation inside of me. I wanted to be more in the know. More on the scene of what was happening. I wanted to report more.

Blogging is/was fine work, but the desire to do something that’s more your own is a strong one. I got to do a little bit of that at NBC when on location for events or other games. I’ve done nothing but report for the NHL since I started there last year and all it’s done is made me want it more. Like a drug, once you get a taste the urge for more can take you over.

Of the things I’ve gotten to write over the past five years or so, it’s the ones I’ve dug in and talked with players, GMs, and other executives that have felt the most rewarding and remain to this day the pieces I am most proud of.

One of my biggest frustrations now being in a rotten kind of limbo is that what you think you’re best at or do the best work with isn’t what’s asked of you – for whatever reason that is.

It’s hard not to get frustrated when “news” like a referee vomiting during play or some sort of wacky occurrence is what produces the web hits and viral attention companies so desire. Hell, even when you wrote something about a team or player only to have a drop in production or a losing streak make what you just wrote look foolish, it makes it all seem like a Sisyphean task.

It’s all a drug of some kind and it all produces a high of some sort. The thing I hope for my future is the opportunity to keep chasing the stories myself.

I don’t know if this is a crossroads moment for me or not, but this college reporter turned blogger turned hybrid writer monster wants to keep chasing the dragon.

I’ve been thinking about this for a long time and finally the light bulb went on over my head after a recent discussion with Florida Panthers captain Willie Mitchell. I asked two questions to him and got over three minutes worth of thoughts on the record. I could’ve done so much more with that, but for what is asked of me at the sites I’m writing for, most of it wasn’t necessary and it made me instantly frustrated.

Sometimes you get really good stuff from players because they’re earnest, honest, and love the game that much. As some jerk that’s never played but loves the sport immensely, helping to share that feeling is a good thing.

There are great stories to be told and it can be frustrating to not be asked to help tell them for one reason or another. But hey, at least we can get a GIF of a referee with food poisoning out there everywhere.

It’s a weird feeling when you lose a job you’ve had for so long. After doing something you’ve genuinely enjoyed for multiple years, it’s like losing part of yourself.

All the time spent, the effort put into it, the constant stress of wondering whether or not anything you’ve done is good enough – all of that is gone and while that might seem like a relief, it’s not.

Instead, you’re left on your own to find another gig as soon as you can because, in this day and age, you’re either working freelance or in a deal that means getting unemployment isn’t an option available to you. It also means you have too much time to sit around and do self-analysis.

“Am I any good at this?”

“Have I ever been a good writer?”

“Am I out of touch?”

“Is it time to just pack it up and get out?”

With all the time now afforded to you, those questions never stop and neither does the comparing. You compare yourself to others still dutifully chugging along and wondering what it is you do that makes you not good enough to continue doing what you love. That kind of self-analysis doesn’t do a lot of good when you’re already feeling low about being cut loose.

***

The strange part about going through all this is keeping track of how often your own identity gets lost in being part of something else. You cease being just your own person – you’re the main guy for that group.

When that happens, it makes scouting around for other work when you know your own foundation is crumbling beneath you a lot more difficult.

It’s something I didn’t really think about in that particular way at the time, but while interviewing for another position the first question I was asked was, “Why in the world do you want to work here?”

Whether it was because they viewed their position as me taking a step down or they thought since I was with the Peacock that I’d be crazy to leave there I don’t know – but it’s that connection with the latter that made me wonder if places who saw that on my résumé figured it meant I’d ask the world of them in salary talks and figured it’s easier to just pass and say “No.”

These are the idle thoughts left behind now that my future is undecided and it’s unpleasant. Something has to fill the void eventually, right?

***

That’s essentially where I’m at now. A guy with a lot of free time to write and report and not enough outlets to do that. When you’re a writer all you want to do is write. Same goes for reporting. You hear great things being said and you’re busting at the seams to get that out there – you just don’t have a place to do that.

I could do that here but that’s not helping me pay bills. Perhaps it could eventually if it grabs someone’s attention but then it’s back to square one:

“What if I’m not good enough?”

It takes equal parts shameless self-promotion and ability but there’s also a massive amount of good forture, too. That’s how I wound up with the Peacock in the first place after all. Luck can run out and maybe I’ve used all of mine up in other situations and areas of life. I mean, it’s fortunate I’m even here to write this, never mind everything else life offers up.

It probably doesn’t help that I don’t really belong to any particular group. It’s not an unfamiliar way of being for me. In high school there wasn’t a particular clique I belonged to – I was just there. In college, I spent so much time in the media center that that was my social circle. It made sense and it was natural and so many of those people are dear friends to this day.

In the professional world, it’s different. You have a lot of colleagues and plenty of people you’re more friendly with than others. There’s even some people you just can’t stand though and the feeling is likely mutual, but that’s never a hindrance, it just is.

There are cliques though and that’s just not really something I’ve fallen into. Maybe that’s to my own detriment, but it is what it is. Maybe that comes from not being as open as others, but something it does do is limits your support system.

Being a writer means always doing things on your own, but there are days where you have to escape your own headspace and breathe. Not having that go-to group makes it harder when you’re trying to escape your own brain. I guess that’s when some people will turn to the bottle or to drugs to just get away from themselves, but that’s never been my means of relief. Being stubborn to myself sometimes comes in handy I suppose.

***

I’m not asking for compliments and “atta-boys” for what I do. I’m just trying to sort through my very frustrated headspace. To have something you love doing and, for one reason or another, not being able to do it is the kind of thing that gives you ulcers and makes you feel 20 years older than you really are.

I keep saying, “This too shall pass” and “Things will get better” but those mantras get worn out and the reality keeps swarming day-by-day.

I’ve chosen this path and I know I can deviate from it anytime I want to, but sometimes you’re just caught up in knowing that this is what you’re meant to do. It’s the thrill of doing something you love to do and knowing deep down, despite the self-doubt and the anxious mind, that this is what you’re good at.

It’s like I’ve made myself into Sisyphus and damn it all, that boulder is going to get all the way up the mountain even if I die trying.

The season starts next week and then I can feel more normal, but for now it’s tough.

Don’t ask why, but I love sports draft lotteries. When you grow up with the NBA Draft Lottery and the wild conspiracy theories that abounded with the Patrick Ewing draft, you can’t help but get sucked into the hype and hysteria.

The NHL Draft Lottery isn’t quite as adventurous as the NBAs, but it has its own quirks. Every year we seem to get the Edmonton Oilers lucking out and winning while the Florida Panthers are left to claim the booby prize.

We’ve seen the New York Islanders and Colorado Avalanche come away with the No. 1 pick in recent seasons when Edmonton wasn’t scoring it and this season it’s the Buffalo Sabres who have the best chance to win it after they finished with the league’s worst record.

The fun of a lottery is, of course, that the best chance of winning means having just a 25-percent chance of doing so.

Anyhow, I’m rambling and that’s stupid. There are 13 different teams that could come away with the No. 1 pick (New Jersey can win the lottery but can’t move up – thanks Ilya!) and I’m going to rank out how the outrage would go on the Internet depending on who won.

14. Buffalo (25% chance to win) — Let’s face it, if the Sabres win the lottery, no one is going to grumble about it. They were the worst team in the league and need all the help they can get. If they win, all will be right in the world.

13. New Jersey (1.5% chance) — This would provide a lot of schadenfreude if the Devils won the lottery. They can’t claim the first pick, so Devils fans would be pissed and have more reason to be mad at Ilya Kovalchuk, but this keeps the draft order in tact as it is meaning Buffalo picks first, Florida second, etc. If the Devils win it’ll be the second time they’ve done that in the past five years. They moved up to fourth overall in 2011 when they won and selected Adam Larsson. That was before they changed lottery rules so anyone in the pool could get the top pick. Skunked again, Jersey!

12. Phoenix/Arizona (0.8% chance) — Bet you’re thinking I’ll go with the cheap joke about the team not having fans or enemies enough to care, right? Wrong. Let’s face fact though, after missing the playoffs two years in a row, the Coyotes just aren’t on anyone’s “Give A Crap” meter. If there’s a team that could use a happy ping pong ball to get a franchise forward though, it’s the Coyotes.

11. Nashville (1.1% chance) — The Preds had lady luck on their side last year when Seth Jones fell to them at fourth overall. Now they need a new coach and lots of skill up front. If the Preds hit the lottery, chances are you’ll read a lot of things that start with, “Good for them!”

10. Winnipeg (2.7% chance) — The Jets hitting the lottery might cause the rest of  Canada to grumble, but on the whole they just don’t punch the collective conscience of NHL fans in the head the way, say, the Maple Leafs do. Things are trending up for the Jets and getting the top pick would speed that up. Maybe then they’ll start drawing more ire.

9. Carolina (4.7% chance) — Much like the other teams that rank out low on this list, Carolina just doesn’t make people angry on the whole. The caveat here if the ‘Canes won the lottery? Fans in Buffalo will have all the more reason to hate them. Yes, memories of the 2006 Eastern Conference Final still run deep in Buffalo and misery in this case would hate company.

8. Calgary (10.7% chance) — Calgary has been bad for a while and haven’t had a No. 1 overall pick in their history. Seeing the Flames jump over Edmonton would be worth it on its own and the Flames have enough former Sabres on the roster to be considered Buffalo’s Western Canada outpost. So why are they this high up? Easy: Everyone seems to hate Brian Burke despite him being the best quote in the business.

7. Florida (18.8% chance) — No one really hates the Panthers, with the exception of some old school Pittsburgh Penguins fans. The Panthers have been bad for a while and have been consistently landing in the Top 5 of the draft, but haven’t picked No. 1 overall since 1994 when they took Ed Jovanovski. Now, Jovo is the team captain and the team has some hopeful youth. Problem with the Panthers is they’re always in the lottery and, as you’ll see as this goes on, being a repeat lottery team means people are probably rooting against you.

6. Anaheim (via Ottawa) (2.1% chance) — Teams that are already the best in the conference tend to not get any sympathy and if the Ducks came away with the No. 1 pick, chances are Western fans would be up in arms that a team that’s already loaded gets to add another big piece. Only question here is whether fans would be more annoyed with Anaheim or Ottawa for forking over their first-round pick for Bobby Ryan.

5. Washington (0.5% chance) — The Capitals have the lowest odds in the lottery and yet… All my mind goes back to is when the Orlando Magic hit the lottery twice and got to snag Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway. If the Caps won the top pick, how quickly do Flyers/Penguins/Rangers fans start crying foul? Immediately? Probably, because they’d announce picking defenseman Aaron Ekblad on the spot.

4. Vancouver (6.2% chance) — The Canucks had a bad year, no doubt, but they’ve still got a lot of (aging) talent and after years of thumping on everyone, seeing them get to reload their youthful prospects with a top forward like Sam Reinhart or Sam Bennett would cause much consternation. Of course we don’t know who the GM will be or maybe even who the coach will be, but that’s beside the point for outrage. Anger here comes from a great team that many people dislike that finally went bad getting the chance to turn it around immediately.

3. New York Islanders (8.1% chance) — The Isles’ one year away to make the playoffs turned into a mess. Fans on the whole are pretty sick of the Islanders always winding up in the lottery and getting the chance to pick first again (they did previously in 2009 and got John Tavares) will make people wonder when the hell things are going to change. Shame for the Isles there isn’t a must-have goaltending prospect at the top of the draft this year.

2. Toronto (3.6% chance) — The Leafs are back in the lottery and they rank out this high because of a few reasons. First off, they were pretty good for most of the season. It would seem “unfair” by some fans if they got the top pick. Secondly, the Leafs are a hated team and their failure to make the playoffs caused much joy. Seeing them rewarded for just missing out would make heads explode. Finally, the Leafs hiring Brendan Shanahan away from the NHL would have conspiracy theory nuts losing their minds. You’ll hear junk about a fixed lottery, frozen envelopes, weighted ping pong balls, and voodoo witch doctors being involved in helping make it all possible.

I’m almost rooting for this to happen just to bathe in the conspiratorial mayhem, but there’s one team that most everyone will be rooting against in this lottery…

1. Edmonton (14.2% chance) — The Oilers have had the No. 1 overall pick in three of the past four drafts. They’ve been supposedly rebuilding their team “the right way” for years now and have yet to make the playoffs because of it. They haven’t been to the postseason since they made the Stanley Cup Final in 2006. They’re teeming over with young talent up front and would have a shot to pick Ekblad if they land the top pick.

Problem is, most everyone is worn out with seeing a team that continues to shoot itself in the foot get rewarded with the best player available every year. If the Oilers come away with the lottery win, “AGAIN?!?!” might start trending on Twitter because of it. At this point in the rebuild, fans are in the “Figure it out already” part of it while the rest just wants them to go away.